SpaceX May Be Overvalued — But I Still Would Never Short It

1. Why I think SpaceX looks overpriced

I think SpaceX looks overpriced even without building a full valuation model. The company is reportedly targeting a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation in its IPO, despite generating about $18.67 billion of revenue in 2025 and still posting a $4.94 billion net loss.

Put differently, SpaceX is seeking a valuation equal to roughly 43% of Apple’s, even though Apple generated about $416 billion of revenue and $113 billion of net income in fiscal 2025. Even more brutally, Apple’s Wearables, Home and Accessories segment alone — which includes AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats, HomePod, and accessories — generated about $35.7 billion of revenue, almost 2x SpaceX’s total revenue. On pure fundamentals, that pricing already looks extremely aggressive.

So yes, I do think the stock looks overvalued.

2. Why I still would never short it

Even with that, I would still never short it.

Because I do not think people are buying SpaceX only for today’s profitability. They are buying what SpaceX represents. They are buying launch dominance, Starlink, defence relevance, long-duration space infrastructure, and the belief that the company is laying the groundwork for something much bigger than current earnings.

At that point, the stock stops being just a stock. It becomes part business, part narrative, part belief.

And I generally do not like betting against belief.

3. SpaceX has genuinely laid important groundwork

To be fair, SpaceX has earned a lot of that belief. Even if the valuation is extreme, the company has done a genuinely strong job laying the foundation for breakthroughs in space tech and space science.

Reusable rockets changed the economics of launch. Starlink changed what people think satellite internet can be. Reuters reported that Starlink accounts for roughly 50% to 80% of SpaceX revenue and serves more than 9 million users globally. That is not just hype. That is real infrastructure already shaping the sector.

So even if every long-term dream does not fully arrive, SpaceX may still be one of those companies that moves the whole field forward.

4. Markets do not only price cash flow. They also price imagination.

That is why I think this stock trades partly on numbers, but also partly on faith.

People are not just underwriting a business. They are underwriting a view of the future. The same reason people get excited about AI, rockets, quantum, or any major scientific leap is the same reason they buy a stock like this: they want exposure to something they believe could reshape life, even if the economics are still uncertain.

That may sound irrational, but markets are full of things that run on belief long before they run on proven financial maturity.

5. Science works like that too

Science itself often moves this way. Sometimes an early theory fails, but still lays the groundwork for the real breakthrough later.

Take the old luminiferous ether theory as an example. It turned out to be wrong, but attempts to test it, especially the Michelson–Morley experiment, helped pave the way for special relativity.

A failed theory can still be incredibly useful if it helps build the road to something better.

I think SpaceX may play a similar role. Even if not every ambition comes true exactly as promised, the company may still be building infrastructure that enables major breakthroughs later.

6. My takeaway

So my view is simple.

Yes, SpaceX may be overpriced.
Yes, the valuation looks brutal.
Yes, expectations are probably ahead of fundamentals.

But I still would never short it.

Because I do not like betting against something this sentimental, this symbolic, and this tied to people’s imagination about the future. Once a stock becomes part financial asset and part belief system, valuation alone is no longer enough to fight it.

And in investing, I generally do not bet against belief.